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Archive for the ‘All Ords’ Category

Seems like we could break the ‘fast’ downtrend or head for a retest.

Note that the market is trading at the 5 day EMA.

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As shown by the apparent collapse of Centro Property Group, leverage is a double edged sword. Centro was one of the best (if not the best) performing property stock leading up to May or so of this year because of its aggressive growth ambitions. Now that obscene amount of gearing on apparently safe retail property assets has come back to nip it in the butt. No doubt, this has become the worst performing property group. Other property stocks understandably took a big dive as well, culminating in the greatest one day plunge in the Australian Listed Property Index of a whopping 11%. Given the state of Centro, I would not be surprised to see Westfield make a bid for its assets given that it is now being sold off at fire sale prices.

Looking at the index now (click on chart below), the property index would either continue to fall precipitously below the down sloping blue line or make an attempt to bounce here. The listed property market is now probably in a bear market.

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The Small Ordinaries are also acting substantially weaker relative to the All Ordinaries, which is analogous to the situation in the US where the Small Caps are substantially underperforming the Large Caps. Given the horrible internals in the Aussie market as mentioned in this post, we might have a rough few months ahead on the All Ords especially with narrowing leadership depending on a few toppy and overextended stocks like WOW, CBA, WBC, CSL and RIO. BHP looks like it has topped ever (at least for now) since I started harping on about its top in October in this post and in this post. *Pat myself on the back :p *

Sidenote: I hate the phrase ‘top up’ when used in the context of buying shares. To those that use this annoying phrase and perpetuate its common usage, I hope every stock you buy goes to zero. (End rant).

18/12: The market wide sell off is looking way over done on the All Ordinaries. I think we’re going to get a decent bounce soon:

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Based on monthly pivots, the SPX is targetting a retest of 1550, while the Australian All Ords is also heading for a retest of the highs at around 6850. As always, click on the charts to enlarge it.

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Another interesting chart I’ll post is in regards to the advance/decline line against the All Ordinaries. As you can see in the chart below, the market internals have declined significantly despite the market appearing to hold up well. This doesn’t necessarily mean the market will collapse soon, but it does warn us that the market environment ahead will be different to the one we’ve had for the past few years. (To access a/d data, go to http://sttc.net.au/~stever/).

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Market Status

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If the month end market manipulators get their way, the SPX will probably close at 1455, 1473 or 1490 so as to make the monthly candles line up.

Manipulation is evident in the All Ordinaries as the manipulators are pushing the market up to close just within October’s candle.

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While the US markets are nearing its Aug lows, here are what some of the other markets are doing.

Australia:

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Hong Kong:

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China:

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With the exception of Japan, the correction has been a tiny hit on Asia.  Looks like risk taking is still alive.

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Another momo stock bites the dust.  Based on the mixed model, anyone long AED Oil should be stopped out today.  Potential support areas at: 8.3, 7.6 and 7.

Anyway, check out the nasty intraday reversal on the All Ords, led down by energy and financials.  Apparently, it is due to the fact that Merrill Will Add $2.5 Billion to Writedowns.

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Here’s an interesting stock I’ve been missing out on: Jetset.

Outbound tourism has been booming because of the soaring Aussie dollar and travel agents are banking coin because of it. Look at that beauty go. Just goes to show that not all stocks that triple in less than a year comes from the mining/energy sector. Wowsers!

To make things better for Jetset, it recently got into negotiations with Qantas in regards to Qantas holidays.

Watching in awe…

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