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Archive for the ‘australian dollar’ Category

So far, the SPX close below 1450 is looking like a fake out, which makes S2 at 1450 (the area I’ve harped on about so many times) valid support despite its breach yesterday.

Either we’ve bottomed, or the market sets up a good shorting opportunity as long as SPX stays below 1484. I ain’t shorting. I did go long AUD/JPY at 98.05 and I’ll ride the rally as far as it goes (target 100.1).

The only thing worrying me is that this bounce was the one that everyone expected.

That being said, we might get one more retrace on the SPX in a week or two, but I’m not holding my breath.

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I hate to harp on about old charts, but my Nov guess was spot on notwithstanding yesterday’s downside fakeout. How the market bounces here determines where it will go from here.

ss8793.png

🙂

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Of all the places, they decide to close the market here:

spx.gif
Itching to go short here, but I just can’t.

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Looks like risk is back.  I’m holding off on those long ideas.  Will continue to wait for bottoming action before buying.

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I’m still holding the belief that the market will probably bottom somewhere around SPX 1450 (or 1438/1433 on an intraday basis). There is a possibility that it might hit S3 at 1414, but I assign that a low possibility right now.

As such, I’ll be looking for bottoming action in the coming days, and will be attempting to buy the dips at select areas on Monday for a hard rally upwards.

In summary, I’m looking for a turn in this decline. My guess this bottoming process may last until the end of Nov before a strong rally going through December (possibly to new highs, who knows).

I will also be looking for a possible bottom in the carry trade currencies, namely AUD/JPY.

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as noted here…but I’m still ST bearish, that is I’m expecting 1475-1450 on the SPX to be seen in the coming days.

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Update 7/11: Shorted some AUD/JPY at 106.55 as a semi-hedge for the ES long. I thought ES had a shot of getting to 1528 today but so far it ain’t looking so hot. I’ll probably capitulate soon and lock in what little profit I have left.

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Update 7/11: Amazing how I not only managed to lose a 20 point ES profit but also get stopped out for a loss. Silly me. Not to worry, my AUD/JPY short for 150 pips and I’ve already locked in a third of profits.

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Update 7/11: Closed another 1/3 profit for 160 pips. I want to have a stop at 105.85 for the remaining 1/3 based on technicals, but the market usually takes a run above these “.85” levels before respecting it as resistance. As such I’m keeping a stop at 106.25, but will monitor the position accordingly.

Update 8/11: Stopped out of short at 104.85. 🙂 Good run while it lasted.

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LT trend is still up. Bollinger squeeze. Recent high volume. I think this thing is about to breakout to the upside big time.

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Here’s an interesting stock I’ve been missing out on: Jetset.

Outbound tourism has been booming because of the soaring Aussie dollar and travel agents are banking coin because of it. Look at that beauty go. Just goes to show that not all stocks that triple in less than a year comes from the mining/energy sector. Wowsers!

To make things better for Jetset, it recently got into negotiations with Qantas in regards to Qantas holidays.

Watching in awe…

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AUD/JPY

This thing could be hitting some resistance. I know long term charts like this is next to useless when it comes to trading currencies, but it does tell me to tread carefully on the long side (or start treading on the short side).

By the way, I shorted at 105.34, but I don’t think I’ll make much money out of this trade.

audjpys9812.PNG

Update 11/10 – Still in the trade, and it’s trading at about breakeven at the moment.  I’m sticking to it, but if I get stopped out, I’ll reverse and go long.

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