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Archive for the ‘australian shares’ Category

Mother market shook me out of all my buys and into 100% cash on Tuesday. Despite that, I’m coming out of the week with plenty of stocks in hand which were bought over the course of Wednesday and Thursday. LEI, WOR, JET, QBE and IPL (again). I’m also considering a play on platinum, with AQP, which is still consolidating in a tight range.

Update at close: Sold QBE at close and bought AAX. Buying growth.

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Incitec Pivot is really kicking some arse despite the lackluster performance from all other sectors. There’s no doubt that the agricultural chemicals (and gold and energy) are kicking it.

Despite my cheering for IPL, I think it is running way too hard at the moment (not that I’m complaining 🙂 ), so I’ve decided to sell down a third of my holdings purchased near $93 for $127.

I’m holding the rest until I’m either stopped out – or it reaches my target.  There’s two points of potential resistance for IPL at the current point in time.  One is $126, the other is $150.  Both are based on technicals and not some arbitrary number.  Although I think IPL will continue to soar in the first quarter or maybe even first half of 2008, I think it’ll take a huge dive in the second half – probably after the latter target is reached.

Aside from IPL, I’m looking for an entry point into JET. The entry price I’m looking at is 3.3-3.4, depending on the circumstances of course.  NUF also looks fairly interesting.

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The outperformers in the first quarter or first half will probably end up being oil, precious metals and agricultural stuff.   They’ll probably underperform in the later periods of the year as the laggards (financials et al) start to pick up pace.  Thus I’ll be looking to bottom pick some financial stocks showing slight relative strength as that time approaches.  The only name I can come up with right now is Babcock and Brown.  I would not be buying any financials stocks at this point in time though. :/

So what is my overall tip for 2008? Do your own research.

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Enough said.  The market loves me and hates everyone else.

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…is still trading below the short term MAs. Guilty till proven innocent.

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But while fools are getting their teeth punched out with their broken stocks such as TOL, ZFX, SUN, AFG, CNP, AED, NAB, et al – I’m doing fine. IPL (my largest holding-30% weighting) is looking something like this:

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My average price is 93-ish, with the position taken on the day I posted my signal here on the 3rd of Dec.  By the way, I’m yet to tweak the system for IPL.

My only other position is a small parcel of IDL, which is now getting dangerously close to being stopped out. Also, TRS is starting to look like a piece of shit. Lucky I no longer own it. Lost a bunch on trying to trade this crap 2 or 3 times this year. I still like the company though.

Overall, I think the growth will outperform value, just as it has been the case in the US.   That means don’t buy just because you see a low P/E.  Some fools forget that ‘E’ can go down too.

Meanwhile, keep an eye on stocks like IPL, JET and – maybe (just maybe) – AAX and CBD.  I’d like to add FLT to this so far tiny list based on its technicals, but I don’t like its recent US acquisition. Who wants to buy US shit linked with consumer spending? I could very well be wrong though.

I think it is time to be very selective from now on.  That being said, do not buy or sell stocks because of this post.  If you do, you will probably develop a very painful stomach ulcer.

In case I don’t post again in the coming days or weeks, have a safe holiday.

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Based on monthly pivots, the SPX is targetting a retest of 1550, while the Australian All Ords is also heading for a retest of the highs at around 6850. As always, click on the charts to enlarge it.

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Another interesting chart I’ll post is in regards to the advance/decline line against the All Ordinaries. As you can see in the chart below, the market internals have declined significantly despite the market appearing to hold up well. This doesn’t necessarily mean the market will collapse soon, but it does warn us that the market environment ahead will be different to the one we’ve had for the past few years. (To access a/d data, go to http://sttc.net.au/~stever/).

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I still recall some of the amateurs on a stock forum calling for $14-16 based on some obscure fundamental analysis and flagging multiple broker reports when it was at $9. It is now less than half that within a month and a bit. During the decline, their posts were marked by disbelief and denial, always referring to the ‘fundamentals’ as the stock slid each day. Today it closed down 20% to $4.48.

Famous last words from some guy: “bought in at 7.20, now at 5.80. figured it would recover eventually its not like the reserves have disappeared. all the brokers seemed to be backing aed for the even when it was in the 9.00 range.”

For some sick reason, I find that hilarious.

Once again, technicals trump fundamentals. Technicals lead the fundamentals.

— After being 20% down on the day, it sure feels like almost everyone has capitulated for now. Despite my feeling that this ex-momo stock is nearing a bounce, I have no interest in buying it until there is some major repair work on its chart.

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….

Stopped out on EUR/JPY

Update 23/11: Sold QBE @ 31.4.  Also sold TRS, IPL ( 😦 ).  Still holding IDL and will only sell when I get stopped out.

PS: Hope nobody actually shorted EUR/USD. It closed above 1.4685 a few days ago and has not looked back since.

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