Archive for the ‘babcock and brown’ Category

Incitec Pivot is really kicking some arse despite the lackluster performance from all other sectors. There’s no doubt that the agricultural chemicals (and gold and energy) are kicking it.

Despite my cheering for IPL, I think it is running way too hard at the moment (not that I’m complaining 🙂 ), so I’ve decided to sell down a third of my holdings purchased near $93 for $127.

I’m holding the rest until I’m either stopped out – or it reaches my target.  There’s two points of potential resistance for IPL at the current point in time.  One is $126, the other is $150.  Both are based on technicals and not some arbitrary number.  Although I think IPL will continue to soar in the first quarter or maybe even first half of 2008, I think it’ll take a huge dive in the second half – probably after the latter target is reached.

Aside from IPL, I’m looking for an entry point into JET. The entry price I’m looking at is 3.3-3.4, depending on the circumstances of course.  NUF also looks fairly interesting.


The outperformers in the first quarter or first half will probably end up being oil, precious metals and agricultural stuff.   They’ll probably underperform in the later periods of the year as the laggards (financials et al) start to pick up pace.  Thus I’ll be looking to bottom pick some financial stocks showing slight relative strength as that time approaches.  The only name I can come up with right now is Babcock and Brown.  I would not be buying any financials stocks at this point in time though. :/

So what is my overall tip for 2008? Do your own research.


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Sold QBE at open 27.92. Keeping ANZ.

Will be looking to buy back BNB (if it nears the 18.7 region only). Also may look to buy CPU. Although yesterday set up a great reversal, I don’t think that this has ended the correction completely, especially in regards to the Oz market. The All Ords should pullback to 5630 sometime later on, either today or over the next few weeks. There may be further downside in Oz or just a long sideways consolidation like last year.

The US on the other hand may very well have put in a good bottom.

There’ll still be plenty of opportunity to buy shares cheap. Just don’t rush in too soon. It’s better to be a little late versus a little early. (There’s just too many people trapped in positions right now that still want to get out on strong rallies).

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I could not be more wrong again about 5800 being ‘near’ the bottom. It dropped like a hot rock to 5600 and has pierced the trendline extending from the 2003 bottom.

It ‘looks’ like exhaustion selling, but I can’t find it in me to step in front of a freight train by buying. I’m scrapping my plan of buying the eminis as I suspect the US might go for a possible washout move as well.

Back on the sidelines with my cash. Preserve your capital at all costs for the next low risk trade.


Update: Wow! Talk about selling exhaustion. I bought some panic (against my own advice) and put 20% of my cash to work, 5% on the QBE at 25.85, 5% on BNB at 18, and 10% on ANZ at 25.85. I’m wary of buying any more right now, but I can’t rule out another sharp retest. Maybe the short term bottom is in. Long term: it’s lookin bearish.

Hope I don’t regret my purchases.

Update2: Just to let you know, I sold BNB at the near close for 19.5 and half of ANZ at 26.85.  Small profits to make up for my losses when I sold MFS and CGF a week or so ago.  So I’m 5% QBE and 5% ANZ.  QBE reports early next week, so I’ll be dumping it by the end of Friday regardless of whether it goes up or down.  I know QBE tends to surprise to the upside rather than the downside, but given its precarious technical situation, I’ll be hopping off it.  Hope we get some follow through buying tomorrow.


Carry trade Update:

AUD/JPY Carry trade is still intact despite its ugliness. See chart below. Channel support.


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It’s certainly trying to give that impression, and I’m starting to believe it too, although the base building is a bit on the light side given the huge damage….

As for Aussie shares, I’m flipping on my earlier call and will scour for more decimated i-bank stocks. I’ll add back MFS, but I’m not going to add back CGF. Still holding BNB. Still, the risk of getting one’s head chopped off by holding onto i-bank stocks is high.

By the way, the AUD/JPY long trade is coming along nicely.


Update: I’ll congratulate anyone who had the balls to catch MBL at $70. But it’s not like I didn’t see the bounce at $70 coming. Now if it were me, I’d be unloading MBL at 80-83 level.

Personally, I like BNB more (for no particular reason) and will hold it enters the 27.5 – 28.5 range. There will be sharp pullbacks in these stocks to shakeout the remaining weak longs so tread with caution. That said, don’t listen to me because I’m a very bad trader 🙂 .

Update: We’re gonna be test the lows again sometime soon. If the rally is feeling like it’s getting away from you, don’t worry, it won’t go to the moon.

Update: Well my entire BNB position got stopped out near the very lows of the day at 25.38 (low 25.37).  I certainly didn’t see that coming. 😦 .  But it looks like there’s more US subprime issues coming out of europe right now, so I guess I can buy it back cheaper later right?

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Expect the rally to continue folks. Probably into next week.

SPX target of 1505.

I got stopped out of my EUR/JPY last night, which I probably should have expected given the FOMC related volatility. But this morning, I got long the AUD/JPY at 101.75. It should get a clean breakout above 102.15 and shoot for 103.65 to 103.85. Or else it’s going back down to the low 101s.


I also bought back BNB at 25.05 yesterday after selling it at 25.75, so now my portfolio can at least participate in this week’s bounce. I increased its weighting to 15%. 85% cash in my investment account right now. Shoulda kept MFS and CGF to sell later…but risk management trumps hindsight.

I feel I’m too cash heavy in my investment account going into this rally than I should be. Too cautious I guess. Regardless, I’ll focus on my futures and currency trading for now.

Update: I suspect the US market will experience a pullback early on and will probably rally into the close.  For the SP emini, keep your eye on the 1485 area as once we get above that, 1500, then 1513 will be next.

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I sort of expected to get stopped out of the ESU7 before I went to bed.

I lowered my stop on the EUR/JPY 😮 and luckily that didn’t get hit. So my half a position on the EUR/JPY was my only exposure to last night’s surge. Up 120 pips so far and I’m not willing to take profits just yet. Might even add some more.

We should rally for the rest of the entire week going into mid-Aug. I guess my capitulation on my MFS/CGF investment really helped get the market going 🙂 . But at least I loaded up on some BNB yesterday, and I’ll see how that goes in the coming days (I’m pulling up the bounce target to 26.5 for now).

I don’t think this is the major bottom.

Holy smokes: BNB is opening at 25.75!! I’m selling at open (bought at 23.85).

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Bought some at 23.85 for a gap fill play.  Will sell between 25 – 25.5. 10% portfolio weighting.

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