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Archive for the ‘BNB’ Category

Sold QBE at open 27.92. Keeping ANZ.

Will be looking to buy back BNB (if it nears the 18.7 region only). Also may look to buy CPU. Although yesterday set up a great reversal, I don’t think that this has ended the correction completely, especially in regards to the Oz market. The All Ords should pullback to 5630 sometime later on, either today or over the next few weeks. There may be further downside in Oz or just a long sideways consolidation like last year.

The US on the other hand may very well have put in a good bottom.

There’ll still be plenty of opportunity to buy shares cheap. Just don’t rush in too soon. It’s better to be a little late versus a little early. (There’s just too many people trapped in positions right now that still want to get out on strong rallies).

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It’s certainly trying to give that impression, and I’m starting to believe it too, although the base building is a bit on the light side given the huge damage….

As for Aussie shares, I’m flipping on my earlier call and will scour for more decimated i-bank stocks. I’ll add back MFS, but I’m not going to add back CGF. Still holding BNB. Still, the risk of getting one’s head chopped off by holding onto i-bank stocks is high.

By the way, the AUD/JPY long trade is coming along nicely.

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Update: I’ll congratulate anyone who had the balls to catch MBL at $70. But it’s not like I didn’t see the bounce at $70 coming. Now if it were me, I’d be unloading MBL at 80-83 level.

Personally, I like BNB more (for no particular reason) and will hold it enters the 27.5 – 28.5 range. There will be sharp pullbacks in these stocks to shakeout the remaining weak longs so tread with caution. That said, don’t listen to me because I’m a very bad trader ūüôā .

Update: We’re gonna be test the lows again sometime soon. If the rally is feeling like it’s getting away from you, don’t worry, it won’t go to the moon.

Update: Well my entire BNB position got stopped out near the very lows of the day at 25.38 (low 25.37).¬† I certainly didn’t see that coming. ūüė¶ .¬† But it looks like there’s more US subprime issues coming out of europe right now, so I guess I can buy it back cheaper later right?

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Expect the rally to continue folks. Probably into next week.

SPX target of 1505.

I got stopped out of my EUR/JPY last night, which I probably should have expected given the FOMC related volatility. But this morning, I got long the AUD/JPY at 101.75. It should get a clean breakout above 102.15 and shoot for 103.65 to 103.85. Or else it’s going back down to the low 101s.

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I also bought back BNB at 25.05 yesterday after selling it at 25.75, so now my portfolio can at least participate in this week’s bounce. I increased its weighting to 15%. 85% cash in my investment account right now. Shoulda kept MFS and CGF to sell later…but risk management trumps hindsight.

I feel I’m too cash heavy in my investment account going into this rally than I should be. Too cautious I guess. Regardless, I’ll focus on my futures and currency trading for now.

Update: I suspect the US market will experience a pullback early on and will probably rally into the close.  For the SP emini, keep your eye on the 1485 area as once we get above that, 1500, then 1513 will be next.

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I sort of expected to get stopped out of the ESU7 before I went to bed.

I lowered my stop on the EUR/JPY ūüėģ and luckily that didn’t get hit. So my half a position on the EUR/JPY was my only exposure to last night’s surge. Up 120 pips so far and I’m not willing to take profits just yet. Might even add some more.

We should rally for the rest of the entire week going into mid-Aug. I guess my capitulation on my MFS/CGF investment really helped get the market going ūüôā . But at least I loaded up on some BNB yesterday, and I’ll see how that goes in the coming days (I’m pulling up the bounce target to 26.5 for now).

I don’t think this is the major bottom.

Holy smokes: BNB is opening at 25.75!! I’m selling at open (bought at 23.85).

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BNB, MBL sucks. Rather than playing the oversold bounce. I don’t wanna get my balls chopped off for buying something that I’ll probably regret later on. If I was a long either of these, I’d have emotionally capitulated yesterday, which suggests that we might get a bigger bounce in the coming week, but like I said, I’ll back off let the pros play the bounce.

I’m gonna have to turn off this sector for quite a while. I thank Greenspan for the subprime mess that he made.

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This is merely some commentary I’m offering to those mum and dad investors who are holding MBL (which I’m glad I’m not).¬† For what it’s worth, I’ll be blunt and harsh and I won’t be apologetic since the market was clearly not apologetic to MBL shareholders over the last few weeks.

For those people that have held onto this stinking piece of shit since its $87 share issue, I say you deserve today’s shit whacking.¬† When those that head the ‘millionaire’ factory start issuing shares when the stock is trading at all time highs, would you be buying?¬† Moreover, the charts were ugly as, and volume was getting quite heavy on the selling prior to the recent selloff.

Looking at the chart, the stock ‘should’ find solid support near 71.5 area, maybe a few cents lower and bounce to 78 or 83 region.¬† But personally, I feel the only real safe area to add this to one’s¬†long term portfolio is near the $67 region, which coincides with a 38% retracement of its entire bull run.¬† Personally, I believe $67 would most likely mark the bottom of a massive trading range for this stock.¬† If sentiment really turns sour, then we¬†could see it retrace 50% to the $58 region (very unlikely, but it is possible).¬† I might try and catch this near 71.5¬†(if it can get there this week or the next)¬†for a good bounce (and no more), but I’ve got a feeling that I might shoot myself in the foot¬†by trying this.

From another perspective, we could look at the monthly pivot points.¬† As you can see, we bounced a few days ago near S2, and only a day later, we’re sitting at July’s S3 of 73.73.¬† But since this is August, we can see the monthly PP is at 84.74, which is too far away to even think about for now.¬† We’re below August S1 76.61, and just above S2 at 70.71.¬† That again makes me believe that we’ll see a bounce from this stock beginning from the 70.70 to 71.5 region.

Long term, I’m neutral to slightly bearish on this stock because the 200EMA has turned down today.¬† That said, it appears to be a bit too late to sell now, so I’d take to¬†unloading on rallies to the 78-83 region.

 mbl.pngmbl-pp.pngmbl-fib.png

As for Babcock and Brown (BNB), it’ll probably follow in Macquarie’s (MBL) footsteps.

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Like I predicted a couple of days ago, we got a vicious bear attack before Friday. However, the crash scenario is back open.

The All Ords is absolutely getting demolished as I speak.¬† For my equity holdings, I’m 20% long, and even with the small holding, I’m getting butchered because of my exposure to the financials.¬† Ay.¬† That’s what I get for not having stops on my ‘investments’.¬† Macquarie Bank is grenading itself (down 10%) due to its subprime losses.¬† Babcock and Brown, Australia’s 2nd biggest investment bank, is flooding the market with blood and shit, taking¬†a 10%¬†hit as well.¬† I don’t have exposure to either of these stocks, but their shitty performances are affecting my holdings.¬† Fuck you sellers.

Babcock and Brown is something I always wanted to add to my portfolio, and given my large cash position, I’m very tempted to nibble a bit on it considering the stock has panic written all over it.¬† However, I don’t want my face blown up, so I’ll wait a day or two before forking out the cash to mother market.¬† It is dirt cheap at $25.3 considering it fell from $32 a week ago.¬† That said, dirt cheap can get cheaper.

I’ll be lightening up on a bounce if it materialises in the coming days on the all ords.¬† FWIW, the technicals of all ords looks a lot uglier than that of the US, so I’m maintaining my outlook¬†on the SPX, but I’m gonna be a bit more wary of catching a bottom on the All Ords…it could have more room to fall.

Most yen crosses¬†are pulling back to where they were a few days ago.¬† I think I’ll step aside for now.¬† If the low breaks significantly, we’re all doomed for a huge cascade of selling.

Just a reminder people, permabears are fucktards.

Update: I’m lowering my downside target to the February lows for the SPX.¬† Looks like the bears have more fight in them, so yeah.¬† Bulls will have to choke on their own vomit for the time being.¬† In other words, we’re all fucked even though we’re due for a good bounce.¬† I’d like to say that we’re close to a short term bottom, but I wouldn’t know…

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