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Archive for the ‘carry trade’ Category

At 31.05 and 41.1 respectively. Closed ES at 1441.

Update: USD/JPY is hanging by a thread. AUD/JPY ain’t looking so hot either. Best to stay on the sidelines for now until things sort themselves out.

Update: ES looks like its made that elusive intermediate bottom.  EUR/JPY is looking good for a long trade at 161.3 at the moment.

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Especially if it holds below the yellow line. Interesting to note that the DAILY bar has closed below the yellow line, thus the nice breakout turned out to be a ‘tail’/’shadow’.

gbpjpy12231233.gif

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The yen pairs are at an important juncture. The pairs that I’m looking at: AUD/JPY, EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY are all bumping against the downtrend line coming down from the July highs.

I’ll illustrate this with the GBP/JPY (Click to enlarge):

carrytradegbp1.gif

 

 

I’ve got no idea which way this thing will go. It could end up being the next best shorting opportunity, or the breakout of the week. European trading will make this very interesting. I’m still holding 1xGBP/JPY long and 1xAUD/JPY long with stops just below the lower bounds of the blue channel. I sold off 1xgbp/jpy and 1xaud/jpy near its highs during early Asian trade just before I left the screen. That’s a heck of a lot of open profits at risk, but I reckon it might be worth it to see if we breakout above the yellow line. Apart from my open positions, I have no intention of entering these pairs until everything becomes clearer. However, my bias is towards a breakout above the yellow line.

The outcome of this little scuffle will also determine the direction of the equity markets.

Update: As at early Asian trading, the AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY have broken out to the upside, but GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY have not. Picture is mixed at best, but given the early breakout of AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY, I’m expecting explosive moves from GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY to follow soon.

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I went long 2x GBP/JPY and 2x AUD/JPY before I went off to sleep, with stops at breakeven for the GBP/JPY and 45-pip trailing stops on the AUD/JPY.

This is what I awoke to:

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Major pippage. I’ll be taking half of this off the table of course considering the pairs have just about hit the upper end of their hourly 15min channels.

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This is what I’ve got to say about the NDX:

ndx.gif

EUR/JPY:

eurjpy12142.gif

Looking at the Yen, it seems like we’re preparing for the next big move. In terms of the equity markets, this may happen again:

bear_attack.jpg

 

I reiterate my view that any bear attack will only amount to a retest at most and that we should be hitting new highs by year end.

(Update: All Ords still has the potential to rally back to 6300 in the next few days before a bigger retracement down to the low 6000s).

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spx-forecast.png

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I went long some EUR/JPY earlier and they’re doing pretty well now. Wish I had bought more though.
Update: I thought I had a decent chance at playing the volatile GBP/JPY pair and consequently got my teeth punched out. I think I’ll stay with the EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY pairs when it comes to partaking in the carry trades in the future.

eurjpy1.gif

Here is my EUR/JPY long, which is still open.

Update: That was real gay. Some dipshit decided to unwind their position and took out half of my open profits by stopping me out.

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I reckon Big Ben will set the markets on fire with a huge breakout.  All we need is a whisper of a rate cut and we’re good to go.  As such I’m looking forward to positioning myself on the long side with ESU7 or a carry trade prior to the speech.  I’ll need to look at where to put the stops on these trades as I’m sure as heck that there’ll be violent moves that shake a lot of people out of good positions.

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