Archive for the ‘currency’ Category

At 31.05 and 41.1 respectively. Closed ES at 1441.

Update: USD/JPY is hanging by a thread. AUD/JPY ain’t looking so hot either. Best to stay on the sidelines for now until things sort themselves out.

Update: ES looks like its made that elusive intermediate bottom.  EUR/JPY is looking good for a long trade at 161.3 at the moment.


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Weekend Update

Update 19/11: Yen is strengthening again. Seems too many people were leaning towards the bull camp too quickly (myself included). I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of test of the recent lows before the rally. SPX 1450 and 1438 are currently the numbers to watch. The EUR/USD is forming a triangle as well. Yen pairs are forming some sort of triangle partern too.


So far 1450 (monthly S2) is holding up fairly well: (Click on chart). If 1450 is indeed an intermediate bottom, the upside target would be 1500~.


There are several signs that point to a decent rally coming up. One hint comes from the currency market, as the AUD/JPY closed above its downtrend line on Friday:


Other yen pairs like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY etc are also in similar positions.

I’ll be looking to looking to go long EUR/JPY or AUD/JPY this week depending on how it behaves on Monday.

I’m also toying with the idea of shorting EUR/USD. As long as it holds below 1.4675 on a daily closing basis, I think the USD will bounce back strongly while EUR will pullback below 1.4530 by the end of the month.
Anyway, here are some charts of EUR/USD:



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Market Status

SPX 1450 level has been broken on a closing basis, which raises the odds that SPX 1415 will be tested.

I’m still of the belief that we should be forming an intermediate bottom soon, but I’ll be holding off on taking any positions until the carry currencies start to stabilise.

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Looks like risk is back.  I’m holding off on those long ideas.  Will continue to wait for bottoming action before buying.

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I’m still holding the belief that the market will probably bottom somewhere around SPX 1450 (or 1438/1433 on an intraday basis). There is a possibility that it might hit S3 at 1414, but I assign that a low possibility right now.

As such, I’ll be looking for bottoming action in the coming days, and will be attempting to buy the dips at select areas on Monday for a hard rally upwards.

In summary, I’m looking for a turn in this decline. My guess this bottoming process may last until the end of Nov before a strong rally going through December (possibly to new highs, who knows).

I will also be looking for a possible bottom in the carry trade currencies, namely AUD/JPY.

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Thursday Ramp

I’ve got a bullish bias for Thursday’s trading so hopefully it is onwards and upwards. If this is the case, we might finally get an upside break out of the ascending wedge forming on the SnP eminis.

As an aside, I got stopped out of my AUD/JPY short and went long at 105.65.

Update: Don’t I make a great contrarian indicator. There was a breakout, and a gap and run.  Then everything reversed course.  But hey, at least I made money on my AUD/JPY – got stopped out at 106.15.

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This thing could be hitting some resistance. I know long term charts like this is next to useless when it comes to trading currencies, but it does tell me to tread carefully on the long side (or start treading on the short side).

By the way, I shorted at 105.34, but I don’t think I’ll make much money out of this trade.


Update 11/10 – Still in the trade, and it’s trading at about breakeven at the moment.  I’m sticking to it, but if I get stopped out, I’ll reverse and go long.

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