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Archive for the ‘Dow’ Category

Read it here.

It is a must read.

All I can say is – thank goodness I don’t live in the US.

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But seriously, today’s jobs data makes the Fed look like a fool for cutting rates so drastically. For now, Jim Rogers appears to be right about the rate move.

There’s little denying that the big surprise cut is nothing more than a Wall Street bailout.

There was a big up move on the 30-Year Treasury Yield Index. You’d think that the dollar would get a decent bid, but no – it rips then cracks to the downside.

NDX easily breached weekly R2 at 2136, and now sits at monthly R1 (around 2148). It also cracked my earlier noted ‘heavy resistance’. If this continues, we should accelerate to the upside towards 2204 and then possibly 2306 (of course, this assumes we accelerate upwards). I think we will tag 2306 by year end.¬† Dow is targeting 14260 first, then 14630. If we do correct here, downside for October is limited to 13630.

I’ll leave you with this clip. Sort of sums up how the idiotic beartards have fumbled the ball late August and gave bulls the upper hand.

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Looks like I might be wrong about the ‘rally all week into next week’ scenario. Whether tonight’s action is a pullback (which I think it is) or something deeper back into the earlier lows remains to be seen. I’m of the view that the US markets have bottomed or are close to bottoming (intermediate term), but the Aussie markets are some ways from it.

I’ll be watching from the sidelines for now.

Here’s a ‘prediction’ for the Dow Jones. Just for fun, nothing more. ūüôā

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Now don’t all panic at once you immature fuckers.¬† Selling only begets more irrational selling and that’ll cause a crash, and we all don’t want that.

Should this dip be bought? Probably not right now.¬† Has the bull market ended? No.¬† Simply put, this is the correction I’ve been waiting for, but have neglected to properly prepare for.¬† For what it’s worth, the NDX is still in reasonable shape, sitting at 1991, it’s first line of support I mentioned a while ago.¬† SPX also sitting on solid support at 1485.¬† If one is to¬†bet on the range holding, then now is the time to¬†buy.¬† But I think that these areas will fail miserably and we’ll probably go for the first 10% correction for a long time.

I’m lucky however that I’m only 30% invested right now…Will be deploying cash when the dust settles and everything looks rosy again.

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Based on the status of the futures, it looks like it ain’t gonna be a pretty day… I tried to catch a bottom at 1508 and almost got stopped out.¬† Thus I’ve decided to get out breakeven near 1508.5.

¬†This might be the start of the long awaited correction.¬† Note for today, XOM disappointed, and that is a hugely weighted index on the DOW, so….

I’m taking this hectic time in the market to research some stocks for the next bull run after the correction.¬† Right now I’m on¬†70% cash¬†for my portfolio (separate from the trading account).¬† For what it’s worth, I’ve been hammered with respect to my holdings over the past two days as the All Ords tanked 150 points.¬† Here’s to hoping my stocks hold up well against the market in the coming days since their correlation with the market has increased recently.

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Although today was ugly, I bought almost near the exact low on the ESU7.¬† I didn’t expect it to fill while I was asleep, but the ESU7 dipped to 1538.5 and I got filled on 1 contract.¬† Given the high risk of the trade, it’s a small position.¬†¬†

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In a bull market, dips are meant for buying.¬† I’m up around 6 points and probably¬†should have sold, but I’m doing the stupid thing and keeping it over the weekend.¬† We might get another flush downwards on Monday.¬† For now, I still think we’re not at the point where we will correct downwards in a major way at the moment since my Dow 14150 target has not been reached.¬† But at least NDX is reacting like it should since it reached R3 resistance at 2035.

¬†Note, GOOG and CAT had nice days (I’m not joking), finishing up from the open as shorts take today as a covering opportunity.¬† This might signal that the end is not here just yet.¬† However, the BKX is once again a cause for concern.¬†¬†Also note that¬†the carry trade took a sizeable pullback today ahead of my forecast.

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Don’t know about the NDX given MSFT and GOOG, but I’m willing to say that based solely on the chart of the SPX, it looks like it wants to touch 1590 or 1620.¬† Basically, we need follow through on the upside soon or at least need to hold the 1540 breakout point.¬† If I was a bull, I wouldn’t like to see the¬†index sit at support for too long.¬† I’ve been whipsawed a bit in the last few trades so I’m just gonna stay put for now.¬† The benefit of the doubt still goes to the buyers as the frail old bears keep getting shot when they rear their ugly heads.¬† Since today is opex(isn’t it?), it’ll probably be more churning and pinning action.

Carry trade also looks overextended and due for a breather by mid-next week.

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