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Archive for the ‘emini’ Category

Outlook for 20/11

There’ll probably be a gap up, a fill, some panic, before a good close in the US.

I’m still trying to play the bottom picking game and I suspect the 1410-1420 area will provide decent support. What I don’t like so far about the price action is the lack of fear and panic (myself included 🙂 ).

Update: Well, the panic part is happening so far I guess. I’m looking to go long near the low 1420s on the ES. The yen is going up dramatically as the market’s cracking, which I guess is good for the bulls.

Update: Went long at 1425.  Got a 10 stop on it.  Cross my fingers and hope the washout is over and we can rally now for real.

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as noted here…but I’m still ST bearish, that is I’m expecting 1475-1450 on the SPX to be seen in the coming days.

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Update 7/11: Shorted some AUD/JPY at 106.55 as a semi-hedge for the ES long. I thought ES had a shot of getting to 1528 today but so far it ain’t looking so hot. I’ll probably capitulate soon and lock in what little profit I have left.

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Update 7/11: Amazing how I not only managed to lose a 20 point ES profit but also get stopped out for a loss. Silly me. Not to worry, my AUD/JPY short for 150 pips and I’ve already locked in a third of profits.

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Update 7/11: Closed another 1/3 profit for 160 pips. I want to have a stop at 105.85 for the remaining 1/3 based on technicals, but the market usually takes a run above these “.85” levels before respecting it as resistance. As such I’m keeping a stop at 106.25, but will monitor the position accordingly.

Update 8/11: Stopped out of short at 104.85. 🙂 Good run while it lasted.

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My homework appears to suggest so…

Perhaps the bulls could muster up a six hit combo to the bears in response to the beating they took on Friday.

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1449 remains support for the ESU7, with the next one at 1434.  I’ll be suspicious of any gap ups, but I would consider buying a gap down.

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I reckon Big Ben will set the markets on fire with a huge breakout.  All we need is a whisper of a rate cut and we’re good to go.  As such I’m looking forward to positioning myself on the long side with ESU7 or a carry trade prior to the speech.  I’ll need to look at where to put the stops on these trades as I’m sure as heck that there’ll be violent moves that shake a lot of people out of good positions.

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These are intended to be scalp trades, but may turn into an bigger swing position depending on the circumstances.

Update: Closed my SP mini contract at 1446 for 8 points. Sold half of AUD/JPY position at 94 (that’s 150 pips in a few hours!!!! – I’m gonna faint).

Update2: Wished I had held onto the SP mini contract and the other half of my AUD/JPY.  Anyway, I’m still in the small AUD/JPY position – up 300 pips 🙂 .

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We should get a stronger pullback by mid-next week. The pullback will unlikely exceed the lows from last week (although it is possible), and so should prove to be a good buying opportunity. The pullback will likely appear scary, which I guess is a good thing.

The pullback and retracement in the US is what I consider the ‘runup’ to the next drop, so I’ll be getting ready to build an intermediate short trade on the ESU7. I’m looking to short it from the 1492 area (although it could get as high as 1510). 1406 area should hold though. I’ll look to go long the NQU7 after the drop.

This is just a warning on the upcoming bear attack. Get your flamethrower ready.

Update: Considering the ESU7 is nowhere near 1480s or 90s, I don’t feel comfortable shorting unless it can rally up there. I might also try might luck at shorting the AUD/JPY later on. It looks to be going up for a stop run at the moment, but I suspect the hourly trend line from last week’s lows will most likely break tonight.

I also sold my ANZ at close and swapped into PPX at 3.33. I’ll also be looking to buy CPU at 9.38 if it ever pulls back in the coming weeks.

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This bounce could have a little more to go, but I’m guessing that a strong pullback may be due either by the end of this week or by the start of next week. Rarely does a correction this big go untested. If I had to go long on a futures contract, I’d opt for the NQU7.

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As for Oz stocks, I didn’t get to buy more QBE, but will buy on dips from now on. My so far miniscule 10% weighting in QBE is exposing me to this market bounce. I’ve still got 5% weighting in ANZ.  I’m also gonna be doing a speculative catch the knife trade on David Jones DJS if it falls to the 4.15-4.25 region.

Will buy some more QBE on dips. As an aside, the All Ords looks like its heading for a 61.8% retracement at 6095 by Thursday or Friday.

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