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Archive for the ‘qbe’ Category

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Stopped out on EUR/JPY

Update 23/11: Sold QBE @ 31.4.  Also sold TRS, IPL ( 😦 ).  Still holding IDL and will only sell when I get stopped out.

PS: Hope nobody actually shorted EUR/USD. It closed above 1.4685 a few days ago and has not looked back since.

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At 31.05 and 41.1 respectively. Closed ES at 1441.

Update: USD/JPY is hanging by a thread. AUD/JPY ain’t looking so hot either. Best to stay on the sidelines for now until things sort themselves out.

Update: ES looks like its made that elusive intermediate bottom.  EUR/JPY is looking good for a long trade at 161.3 at the moment.

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Added at 30.40 and then at 30.60.  I think short term this thing has bottomed.

Also bought BHP near at 39.89, although it could still fall to 39.4.

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This bounce could have a little more to go, but I’m guessing that a strong pullback may be due either by the end of this week or by the start of next week. Rarely does a correction this big go untested. If I had to go long on a futures contract, I’d opt for the NQU7.

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As for Oz stocks, I didn’t get to buy more QBE, but will buy on dips from now on. My so far miniscule 10% weighting in QBE is exposing me to this market bounce. I’ve still got 5% weighting in ANZ.  I’m also gonna be doing a speculative catch the knife trade on David Jones DJS if it falls to the 4.15-4.25 region.

Will buy some more QBE on dips. As an aside, the All Ords looks like its heading for a 61.8% retracement at 6095 by Thursday or Friday.

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After selling out for a short term swing, today’s report seems to reinforce my view that it is one of the best bluechips out there. Rallied 8% upon gapping up on earnings. Last week, it broke below the LT trendline but now the stock is looking slightly better. I’ll be looking to make this my core holding going forward and will scaling into the stock. Right now, the momentum my carry it straight up for a few days before a pullback or it could make for a quick dip to 28.85 and fly off. I’ll definitely start buying if it gets back down to sub 29 levels.

Disclosure: Bought some at 29.8. (10% weighting).  Will increase to 20% weighting later on assuming its downtrend line at 30.5 is broken.

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Sold QBE at open 27.92. Keeping ANZ.

Will be looking to buy back BNB (if it nears the 18.7 region only). Also may look to buy CPU. Although yesterday set up a great reversal, I don’t think that this has ended the correction completely, especially in regards to the Oz market. The All Ords should pullback to 5630 sometime later on, either today or over the next few weeks. There may be further downside in Oz or just a long sideways consolidation like last year.

The US on the other hand may very well have put in a good bottom.

There’ll still be plenty of opportunity to buy shares cheap. Just don’t rush in too soon. It’s better to be a little late versus a little early. (There’s just too many people trapped in positions right now that still want to get out on strong rallies).

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I could not be more wrong again about 5800 being ‘near’ the bottom. It dropped like a hot rock to 5600 and has pierced the trendline extending from the 2003 bottom.

It ‘looks’ like exhaustion selling, but I can’t find it in me to step in front of a freight train by buying. I’m scrapping my plan of buying the eminis as I suspect the US might go for a possible washout move as well.

Back on the sidelines with my cash. Preserve your capital at all costs for the next low risk trade.

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Update: Wow! Talk about selling exhaustion. I bought some panic (against my own advice) and put 20% of my cash to work, 5% on the QBE at 25.85, 5% on BNB at 18, and 10% on ANZ at 25.85. I’m wary of buying any more right now, but I can’t rule out another sharp retest. Maybe the short term bottom is in. Long term: it’s lookin bearish.

Hope I don’t regret my purchases.

Update2: Just to let you know, I sold BNB at the near close for 19.5 and half of ANZ at 26.85.  Small profits to make up for my losses when I sold MFS and CGF a week or so ago.  So I’m 5% QBE and 5% ANZ.  QBE reports early next week, so I’ll be dumping it by the end of Friday regardless of whether it goes up or down.  I know QBE tends to surprise to the upside rather than the downside, but given its precarious technical situation, I’ll be hopping off it.  Hope we get some follow through buying tomorrow.

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Carry trade Update:

AUD/JPY Carry trade is still intact despite its ugliness. See chart below. Channel support.

audjpy2321.gif

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