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Archive for the ‘SPX’ Category

The SP 500

Thought I’d post some charts.

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And don’t forget to check out Will Rahal’s ‘economic series’. It’s always interesting to see a pro’s macroeconomic analysis. Check out his latest post here.

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Based on monthly pivots, the SPX is targetting a retest of 1550, while the Australian All Ords is also heading for a retest of the highs at around 6850. As always, click on the charts to enlarge it.

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Another interesting chart I’ll post is in regards to the advance/decline line against the All Ordinaries. As you can see in the chart below, the market internals have declined significantly despite the market appearing to hold up well. This doesn’t necessarily mean the market will collapse soon, but it does warn us that the market environment ahead will be different to the one we’ve had for the past few years. (To access a/d data, go to http://sttc.net.au/~stever/).

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Market Status

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If the month end market manipulators get their way, the SPX will probably close at 1455, 1473 or 1490 so as to make the monthly candles line up.

Manipulation is evident in the All Ordinaries as the manipulators are pushing the market up to close just within October’s candle.

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Market Outlook

I think the ES might be setting up for a rally up to 1465 or so. After that, I think we might get another scary drop in December to SPX 13XX.

I’ve mainly been sitting on cash.  I’m just not good enough/experienced enough to trade this market yet.  Burned a few times on the long side, too scary to start on the short side too.  Therefore, capital preservation trumps all.

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Outlook for 20/11

There’ll probably be a gap up, a fill, some panic, before a good close in the US.

I’m still trying to play the bottom picking game and I suspect the 1410-1420 area will provide decent support. What I don’t like so far about the price action is the lack of fear and panic (myself included 🙂 ).

Update: Well, the panic part is happening so far I guess. I’m looking to go long near the low 1420s on the ES. The yen is going up dramatically as the market’s cracking, which I guess is good for the bulls.

Update: Went long at 1425.  Got a 10 stop on it.  Cross my fingers and hope the washout is over and we can rally now for real.

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Weekend Update

Update 19/11: Yen is strengthening again. Seems too many people were leaning towards the bull camp too quickly (myself included). I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of test of the recent lows before the rally. SPX 1450 and 1438 are currently the numbers to watch. The EUR/USD is forming a triangle as well. Yen pairs are forming some sort of triangle partern too.

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So far 1450 (monthly S2) is holding up fairly well: (Click on chart). If 1450 is indeed an intermediate bottom, the upside target would be 1500~.

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There are several signs that point to a decent rally coming up. One hint comes from the currency market, as the AUD/JPY closed above its downtrend line on Friday:

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Other yen pairs like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY etc are also in similar positions.

I’ll be looking to looking to go long EUR/JPY or AUD/JPY this week depending on how it behaves on Monday.

I’m also toying with the idea of shorting EUR/USD. As long as it holds below 1.4675 on a daily closing basis, I think the USD will bounce back strongly while EUR will pullback below 1.4530 by the end of the month.
Anyway, here are some charts of EUR/USD:

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So far, the SPX close below 1450 is looking like a fake out, which makes S2 at 1450 (the area I’ve harped on about so many times) valid support despite its breach yesterday.

Either we’ve bottomed, or the market sets up a good shorting opportunity as long as SPX stays below 1484. I ain’t shorting. I did go long AUD/JPY at 98.05 and I’ll ride the rally as far as it goes (target 100.1).

The only thing worrying me is that this bounce was the one that everyone expected.

That being said, we might get one more retrace on the SPX in a week or two, but I’m not holding my breath.

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I hate to harp on about old charts, but my Nov guess was spot on notwithstanding yesterday’s downside fakeout. How the market bounces here determines where it will go from here.

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🙂

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Of all the places, they decide to close the market here:

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Itching to go short here, but I just can’t.

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