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I stand by my view that the market will form a short term or intermediate term top in the early Nov period. A break of 3 day lows at 1529 would confirm my view.

The Nov monthly PP is surprisingly high (1538). My expectation was that PP would come in at 1520 or so. The pivots are as follows:

R2=1624

R1=1587

PP=1538

S1=1500

S2=1451

By the looks of things, I think Nov would at be become a month of churn with a slight bias to the downside. Given that we closed at 1549 yesterday, we are a mere 11 points above PP. I personally don’t think the market can hold this pivot unless it rockets directly to 1587 within the coming days. As such I expect a test of S1 and potentially a poke to S2 (although this is less likely) before the market tries to rally to PP or R1 near month end. Therefore, I suspect a good time to buy would be the late Nov period just in time for the customary Santa rally.

I’ll have a chart up by the weekend.

For now, I’ll leave you with this interesting chart of the SPX. (Click to enlarge)
spx2144.png

Update: Holy shit. Minutes after typing this up, Exxon Mobil’s report comes out and spooks the markets. Talk about odd timing. (Also BKX, Gaming stocks and in fact everything is getting fucked.)

Update:

My Nov guess.

ss8793.png

If 1500 doesn’t hold, I think 1450 will hold and be a good long entry point. It would also be the 62% retracement. However, how the bounce gets treated will decide whether the market will go to new highs or retest Aug lows.

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Here’s an interesting stock I’ve been missing out on: Jetset.

Outbound tourism has been booming because of the soaring Aussie dollar and travel agents are banking coin because of it. Look at that beauty go. Just goes to show that not all stocks that triple in less than a year comes from the mining/energy sector. Wowsers!

To make things better for Jetset, it recently got into negotiations with Qantas in regards to Qantas holidays.

Watching in awe…

jetset.png

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Linkfest

– Uh Oh. Short term top?

– If only all central bankers had this sort of discipline in setting monetary policy.

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To be fair, I’ve drawn out a bullish alternative for the All Ords below. This would target 7000 by year end with downside limited to 6400 – 6385.

Seems unlikely, but it’s very possible. If this is the case, then all the stocks mentioned in my last post will shoot for the moon.

I’m willing to bet that if this scenario occurs, it will be the financials that carry us further from here while BHP holds its ground and grinds upwards.

bullish.png

 

As for the ‘next’ bank to lead on the upside, my favourite would be St George (SGB).  WBC would probably relinquish its ‘leading’ status.

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My homework appears to suggest so…

Perhaps the bulls could muster up a six hit combo to the bears in response to the beating they took on Friday.

zidane3anwo2.gif

1449 remains support for the ESU7, with the next one at 1434.  I’ll be suspicious of any gap ups, but I would consider buying a gap down.

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Expecting a intermediate term top here for All Ords.

xao11.png

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I reckon Big Ben will set the markets on fire with a huge breakout.  All we need is a whisper of a rate cut and we’re good to go.  As such I’m looking forward to positioning myself on the long side with ESU7 or a carry trade prior to the speech.  I’ll need to look at where to put the stops on these trades as I’m sure as heck that there’ll be violent moves that shake a lot of people out of good positions.

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