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This is despite one of the worst droughts in Australian history.

Up 8% at open. Will be adding more on pullback. My favourite stock is getting better all the time.

The only negatives to come out of the report is that the CEO is talking down prospects by offering a cautious outlook vs his positive outlook from last year.

Update 15/11: The crazy hedgies and funds are selling it down.  Idiots.

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Update: Took half profits from my AUD/JPY long at 100.1. Collected 200 pips thank you very much. Wide stop on remaining position at 98.75.

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Enough said in my last post.

Stop 1445. (Still holding the longs from yesterday at 1458).

(I wish I still had my short Aud/Jpy from 106.55).

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I’m going to be exiting half of all my positions before the close.

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Exited a third at 1472.5.

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Ugh, got stopped out of a third at 1468. The stop on the remaining third is at 1458 (breakeven).

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There it goes. Stopped out at 1458.

Gave back all of my profits yet again. 😦

(Flat going into the Weekend)

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Long ES 1458

As mentioned here, I expected to see strong support at SPX 1450, which is monthly S2 support. I didn’t think the chances of touching it was that high, nor did I expect it to be tagged so soon. Nonetheless, I regarded 1450 as a point for a good ‘long’ term buy. I had put on an ES 1458 limit order and stop at 1445 before I went to sleep, and lo and behold, the target was reached and a bounce ensued. Whether 1450 turns out to be a good LT entry is debatable now given the speed at which the target was reached. Right now, there is still the possibility of further weakness to S3 at 1414. It all depends on how the bounce is treated.

I’ve locked in half my gains already in at 1480, which is where it was trading when I woke up. I still remember the bitter aftertaste of my last trade where I lost my entire 20 point profit and then some, after going long at ES1500.

So far my Nov guess posted on the 1st Nov is turning out pretty much as planned, although way ahead of schedule.

ss8793.png

Also of note on Thursday was the Nazzie.  It’s not like I didn’t warn anyone about the break of the fast uptrend:

ndxowi591p8u.png

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as noted here…but I’m still ST bearish, that is I’m expecting 1475-1450 on the SPX to be seen in the coming days.

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Update 7/11: Shorted some AUD/JPY at 106.55 as a semi-hedge for the ES long. I thought ES had a shot of getting to 1528 today but so far it ain’t looking so hot. I’ll probably capitulate soon and lock in what little profit I have left.

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Update 7/11: Amazing how I not only managed to lose a 20 point ES profit but also get stopped out for a loss. Silly me. Not to worry, my AUD/JPY short for 150 pips and I’ve already locked in a third of profits.

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Update 7/11: Closed another 1/3 profit for 160 pips. I want to have a stop at 105.85 for the remaining 1/3 based on technicals, but the market usually takes a run above these “.85” levels before respecting it as resistance. As such I’m keeping a stop at 106.25, but will monitor the position accordingly.

Update 8/11: Stopped out of short at 104.85. 🙂 Good run while it lasted.

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NDX Update

I’ve annotated the charts below.

Click on the charts below to enlarge:
ndxowi591p8u.png
ndx8991234.png

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I expect that vertical trend in the NDX to break and the establishment of a more ‘sustainable uptrend’. This weakness needs to come this week or else this becomes invalid.

My expectation concerning the NDX falls in line with my expectations for the SPX, which is a call for weakness during the early half of Nov before bottoming and rallying late Nov. SPX 1500~ must hold on a closing basis or else we’ll see 1475 or 1450~.

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As an aside, I’m slightly favouring the long side for Monday and I took on a very small long AUD/CHF position at 1.0625.

Update: Promptly stopped out.

Update: Took on a small ES position at 1500.

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Thursday Ramp

I’ve got a bullish bias for Thursday’s trading so hopefully it is onwards and upwards. If this is the case, we might finally get an upside break out of the ascending wedge forming on the SnP eminis.

As an aside, I got stopped out of my AUD/JPY short and went long at 105.65.

Update: Don’t I make a great contrarian indicator. There was a breakout, and a gap and run.  Then everything reversed course.  But hey, at least I made money on my AUD/JPY – got stopped out at 106.15.

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AUD/JPY

This thing could be hitting some resistance. I know long term charts like this is next to useless when it comes to trading currencies, but it does tell me to tread carefully on the long side (or start treading on the short side).

By the way, I shorted at 105.34, but I don’t think I’ll make much money out of this trade.

audjpys9812.PNG

Update 11/10 – Still in the trade, and it’s trading at about breakeven at the moment.  I’m sticking to it, but if I get stopped out, I’ll reverse and go long.

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