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There goes the free market…

Short sellers are getting blamed for collapsing stock prices…how then can they explain the Shanghai market, which does not permit short selling and yet has collapsed from 6200 to 1900?

When oil prices are too high, blame the greedy speculators who keep buying.  When stocks fall too much, blame the greedy short sellers who keep selling.

If the government likes price stability so much, perhaps they can ban buying and selling in all markets.

Idiots.

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Dow Emini

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Interesting to note that datawink pattern recognition system is continuing to give weak dow signals.  Check out the post here.

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A bit too late considering I’ve repeated tried to pick the short term bottom of this decline a couple of days ago. The slippage hurts.

No matter, I’ll get ready for some buys soon enough – just have to be more nimble when it comes to banking profits.bernanke.jpg

Longer term, the market will likely continue its bearish trend.

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As mentioned here, I sold IPL on 22/11 due to a system sell on my system. I sold the day after I got my signal (and after I collected a nice dividend). Since then, the stock has rallied back to new all time highs and thus issuing a new buy signal. It sucks to be shaken out, only to have to buy back at a higher price.

I firmly believe in the fundamentals of the agricultural chemicals industry as well as the company, but sticking to my system is a priority because shit happens and it never helps to ask why when you are bleeding money. When something smells like shit, it probably is shit – don’t wait for a taste test like those fools who hold for the long term after buying a dud that just keeps going down.

(By the looks of the system, I think it needs to be tweaked a bit more for IPL specifically so that the stops are a bit wider).

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Another rate cut?

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Why not? And why not throw in a free pair of steak knives so that the dickheads on Wall Street can stab themselves in the face.

Some market commentators are going on about a resilient US economy. If that’s the case, stop cutting rates. Rate cuts are for wimps.

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Firstly:

  • I congratulate Kevin Rudd for winning this election via his excessive usage meaningless phrases such as “economic conservative”, “working family” and “new/fresh ideas”.
  • Let’s all celebrate by going to our nearest Strip Club while enjoying a fresh plate of our own ear wax.

I can’t help but feel that Australians have stabbed the duo in the back after all they have done. 11 years of sound economic management has transformed Australia into an economic powerhouse in the Asia Pacific region. While some aspects of their leadership left alot to be desired (telecommunications anyone?), there is no denying the fact that the Howard Government was committed to the prosperity of the Australian people. It’s all very easy for the ALP supporters to attribute the Coalition’s success to China and India’s growth, but I suspect the ALP would have found a way to stuff things up had they been in power.

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It is unfortunate that it all ends here.

I don’t mind Kevin Rudd so much. My only complaint with him is that he is too smug for his own good. My main concern with the ALP is its team. The ALP, as I perceive it, is still as incompetent as they always have been. One does not need to look further than the 3 stooges: Wayne Swan, Julia Gillard and Peter Garrett.

One sign that the Australian voters have ‘lost it’ can be found in the growing support of the Greens Party.

Don’t get me wrong, I am all for preserving the environment and such, but I do not believe that the economy should be sacrificed in achieving those goals. A strong and sustainable economy is needed before we can weather the various consequences of radically changing to the way we deal with the environment and other such matters.

Because the ALP have inherited such a strong economy, it would take a lot of stupid decision making to make them lose the next election. Let’s hope the ALP does not fumble the ball. If the Rudd Government turns out to be better managers of the economy (via value adding rather than riding on what was given to them by the Coalition) then I’ll eat my hat.

Captain Obvious says: Trader231 has always been (and probably will always be) a supporter of the Coalition.

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Market Outlook

In my prior few posts, I’ve been speculating that we’ll see an intermediate bottom at around 1450. Despite a fakeout below 1450 and then a massive rally, we’re back at 1450. It wasn’t quite the bounce I’ve been looking for. (Update 16/11: SPX 1450 holding up very well, intermediate bottom scenario still valid – if so, a hard rally up from here is still possible).

I’ve been maintaining my long-term bullish stance for a while, but after some more analysis, I’m downgrading my long term outlook to neutral. I would only become bearish long term if we manage to crack the March/August 2007 lows and close below there on a weekly time frame.

The main reason I’m changing my long-term outlook is because of currency market uncertainties involving the yen. The USD/JPY pair is what really concerns me at the moment. If you look at the MONTHLY chart below, it looks like it MAY crack to 100. This may happen in a few days, weeks, or even months. I wouldn’t know when (or if) it’ll occur, but I suspect that if USD/JPY manages to close below 109 on a daily/weekly basis, we’ll be seeing a cascade all the way down to 100 in a click. Of course, this long term chart of the USD/JPY is next to useless for me when it comes to currency trading, but it does provide some perspective as to potential changes in broader market trends.

Click to enlarge:

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If it were all up to me, I’d take the market to new highs and beyond.

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