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Yen up too much too soon

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Suggests equities might bounce some more.

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At 31.05 and 41.1 respectively. Closed ES at 1441.

Update: USD/JPY is hanging by a thread. AUD/JPY ain’t looking so hot either. Best to stay on the sidelines for now until things sort themselves out.

Update: ES looks like its made that elusive intermediate bottom.  EUR/JPY is looking good for a long trade at 161.3 at the moment.

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Weekend Update

Update 19/11: Yen is strengthening again. Seems too many people were leaning towards the bull camp too quickly (myself included). I wouldn’t be surprised to see some sort of test of the recent lows before the rally. SPX 1450 and 1438 are currently the numbers to watch. The EUR/USD is forming a triangle as well. Yen pairs are forming some sort of triangle partern too.

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So far 1450 (monthly S2) is holding up fairly well: (Click on chart). If 1450 is indeed an intermediate bottom, the upside target would be 1500~.

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There are several signs that point to a decent rally coming up. One hint comes from the currency market, as the AUD/JPY closed above its downtrend line on Friday:

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Other yen pairs like EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY etc are also in similar positions.

I’ll be looking to looking to go long EUR/JPY or AUD/JPY this week depending on how it behaves on Monday.

I’m also toying with the idea of shorting EUR/USD. As long as it holds below 1.4675 on a daily closing basis, I think the USD will bounce back strongly while EUR will pullback below 1.4530 by the end of the month.
Anyway, here are some charts of EUR/USD:

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So far, the SPX close below 1450 is looking like a fake out, which makes S2 at 1450 (the area I’ve harped on about so many times) valid support despite its breach yesterday.

Either we’ve bottomed, or the market sets up a good shorting opportunity as long as SPX stays below 1484. I ain’t shorting. I did go long AUD/JPY at 98.05 and I’ll ride the rally as far as it goes (target 100.1).

The only thing worrying me is that this bounce was the one that everyone expected.

That being said, we might get one more retrace on the SPX in a week or two, but I’m not holding my breath.

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I hate to harp on about old charts, but my Nov guess was spot on notwithstanding yesterday’s downside fakeout. How the market bounces here determines where it will go from here.

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🙂

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Of all the places, they decide to close the market here:

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Itching to go short here, but I just can’t.

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Looks like risk is back.  I’m holding off on those long ideas.  Will continue to wait for bottoming action before buying.

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I’m still holding the belief that the market will probably bottom somewhere around SPX 1450 (or 1438/1433 on an intraday basis). There is a possibility that it might hit S3 at 1414, but I assign that a low possibility right now.

As such, I’ll be looking for bottoming action in the coming days, and will be attempting to buy the dips at select areas on Monday for a hard rally upwards.

In summary, I’m looking for a turn in this decline. My guess this bottoming process may last until the end of Nov before a strong rally going through December (possibly to new highs, who knows).

I will also be looking for a possible bottom in the carry trade currencies, namely AUD/JPY.

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as noted here…but I’m still ST bearish, that is I’m expecting 1475-1450 on the SPX to be seen in the coming days.

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Update 7/11: Shorted some AUD/JPY at 106.55 as a semi-hedge for the ES long. I thought ES had a shot of getting to 1528 today but so far it ain’t looking so hot. I’ll probably capitulate soon and lock in what little profit I have left.

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Update 7/11: Amazing how I not only managed to lose a 20 point ES profit but also get stopped out for a loss. Silly me. Not to worry, my AUD/JPY short for 150 pips and I’ve already locked in a third of profits.

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Update 7/11: Closed another 1/3 profit for 160 pips. I want to have a stop at 105.85 for the remaining 1/3 based on technicals, but the market usually takes a run above these “.85” levels before respecting it as resistance. As such I’m keeping a stop at 106.25, but will monitor the position accordingly.

Update 8/11: Stopped out of short at 104.85. 🙂 Good run while it lasted.

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